The timber and joinery industries should be “quietly confident” about the future despite a predicted slowdown in construction output, says British Woodworking Federation director Richard Lambert.

Mr Lambert’s comments come in response to the Construction Products Association‘s (CPA) latest forecast, which estimates construction growth will halve this year to 3.7%, following 2002’s heady 7%, the largest annual increase since 1988.

He said: “Although private sector work is going to tail off, particularly in the commercial sector, the large injection of funds from government investment is going to more than take up the slack. From our members’ perspective they should be quietly confident.”

Mr Lambert emphasises that construction output is not falling – the rate of growth is merely slowing. He said a decline in private sector construction was “long expected”.

The CPA blames the slowdown on reductions in office and industrial building, a cut back in retail expansion in the light of reduced consumer spending and a cooling in private housing activity.

&#8220Although private sector work is going to tail off, particularly in the commercial sector, the large injection of funds from government investment is going to more than take up the slack. From our members’ perspective they should be quietly confident.”

Richard Lambert, director BWF

Roger Latham, group executive chairman of James Latham plc, said timber and builders merchants had enjoyed buoyant construction demand, particularly in the past 12 months, and it was not unexpected that growth would slow at some point.

He said: “If CPA forecasts are correct, trading could become more difficult as the increase in government spending fails to fully offset the decline in private expenditure. Fortunately, the timber trade is not 100% reliant on the construction industry, although the record level of consumer borrowing must also be a cause for concern.”

The CPA estimates growth will reduce to 0.6% in 2004, before picking up in 2005.