Rob Simpson, managing director of SCA Timber Supply, said: “It’s been a green Christmas in Sweden with very little ice or snow; with the ground still wet it’s continuing to impact the ability to bring logs out of the forests. Demand remains strong in SCA’s markets across Europe, and this combination of factors could see prices rise in the short term.”

Derek Harris, managing director of Romex Productions, described 2007 as the “year of the agent”. “Many companies have run down their stocks and are working hand to mouth.

“Supply in 2007 is going to be very difficult in the first quarter but improving throughout the rest of the year. Regular supplies of good quality material will be hard to come by and the relationship between customer and agent will become more important.

“We anticipate another 5% price increase in the first quarter with another 5% towards the end of the year.”

Mark Briggs, managing director of agent/importer TP Jordeson, said: “If the world remains politically stable, we are now in a long upward price cycle with the odd drop along the way.

“There are worries about the American downturn and the return of the Canadians but they face problems with production and shipping so it is doubtful that this will have a major impact.”

John Bagshaw, managing director of International Timber, said: “2006 was a a year of absolutely unprecedented supply-led price increases and going into 2007 we are not in any different a situation. Procurement will be the key feature from here on in.”

The shortage meant producers would be looking to add more value, making it more difficult to procure carcassing timber.

Andrew Howarth, chairman of Howarth Timber Group, said he hoped for more subdued price rises in 2007 and without the shortages of 2006.

“If substantial volumes of Canadian carcassing timber arrive in the UK this will lead to improved supply and stabilisation of price. However, if the US housing market shows signs of an early recovery, this will be reflected in forward timber prices and may result in a more cautious approach to the European market by the Canadians, which would allow European producers to push for further price increases in a tight supply market.”

John May, timber sales director at James Latham, said the company had no real supply problems due to long-established trading agreements. “Pricing has been an issue over the past 12 months, which have seen a 20% increase from the softwood mills, but that has come on the back of five years of static prices.”