The Bad and the Ugly, by analyst Stephen Atkinson of BMO Nesbitt Burns, says the deal could cause a further 10-20% reduction in industry capacity during the next few years.
The report also says the Canadian lumber industry will eventually have to fall into line with the agreement, as producers cannot fight its own government as well as the US.
Mr Atkinson believes jobs in the value-added timber sector will be lost because new taxes will be based on full value of products rather than on the amount of timber in them.
Meanwhile, Québec’s softwood lumber industry has joined British Columbia in calling for amendments to the agreement. Members of the Québec Forest Industry Council voted 35-12 against the deal.
The council wants four key amendments, including more flexibility on the new cap on export quotas.
