Fresh research suggests 19% of the UK’s top 1,000 timber companies are most at risk if the industry suffers a recession in the second half of 2005.

The latest industry analysis by Plimsoll Publishing Ltd says the at-risk companies are already seeing a slow down, with both their sales and profits falling in the last two years.

A total of 43% of companies are “doing well and seem unaffected”, recording growth in sales and profits, while 14% are showing signs of caution, with sales declining.

  A further 24% seem intent on capturing market share whatever the cost. These companies have reported sales growth but a fall in profits.

Plimsoll senior analyst David Pattison said: “I think the game of blame the industry will start soon. Let’s face it, it’s an ideal time to rush any bad news out and managers can use talk of a recession to cover up problems that go back years.

“The reality is there is a lot of success out there and these struggling companies are simply being outplayed by the competition.”