Substitution of plywood for OSB is expected to continue over the coming years, according to a new report.
Plywood and OSB in the Pacific Rim and Europe, 2011-2015, penned by consultant BIS Shrapnel, also forecasts strong growth in the production and consumption of plywood and OSB as the global economic upturn strengthens, pointing to the early stages of an upturn in the US housebuilding sector.
It also believes the Japanese earthquake will boost demand for plywood and OSB.
“There are at least three large plywood plants in the Miyagi prefecture and the destroyed plants supply an estimated 25% of plywood produced in Japan,” it said.
“This will reduce production capacity in Japan in the face of much stronger demand due to the reconstruction process.”
Over the forecast period, China, eastern European countries and Russia are expected to emerge as significant SB producing regions, “which will have a major impact on the dynamics of the market”.
Plywood consumption is predicted to grow at 5% a year and OSB at 11%, with an undersupply of plywood and oversupply of OSB leading to further considerable substitution of plywood in favour of OSB.
Plywood production is projected to increase from 71 million m³ in 2010 to 84 million m³ in 2015, with OSB growing from 18 million m³ to 28 million m³ during the same period.
By 2015, north Asia will be producing 54% of the world’s plywood, down marginally from 56% in 2010, while North America will be producing 77% of the OSB.
Plywood prices are forecast to rise by an annual average of 6-8%, with OSB seeing spikes of 11-12%.
