The worst of the recession is probably over for the timber industry despite challenges remaining, Timber Trade Federation (TTF) president Kevin Hayes told a packed Great Hall at King’s College, Cambridge.
Mr Hayes told the East Anglia Timber Trade Association (EATTA) annual dinner, attended by about 250 people, that the statistics suggested the worst was over, citing recent TTF softwood division forecasts which point to a reasonable import volume pick up in the second half.
“It’s interesting to note overall softwood consumption is forecast to shrink only 4% this year which suggests a serious increase in market share for our British sawmilling colleagues,” he said.
Mr Hayes said CBI deputy director-general John Cridland had been asked at a recent TTF members’ meeting whether the CBI saw the economic pattern as U, V or W shaped. The answer was “more of a reverse tick”, with a blip envisaged in January once VAT and stamp duty holidays end.
The CBI’s major concern was rising unemployment and the spectre of social unrest.
Mr Hayes said a neighbour of his who was the European sales director of financial information provider Bloomberg was predicting more economic woe come October, with a further 25-30% fall in property prices.
“Personally, I don’t see that, I feel the worst is behind us, but it will take until next spring for any real confidence to return, hopefully led by an improving US economy, So we are far from out of the woods yet.
“It might be a tricky winter in terms of demand but with so many overseas sawmillers having cut back production, it might be an even trickier period in terms of our imported supplies.”
Mr Hayes also highlighted the low carbon economy as an increasingly important issue, with carbon costs being built into the price of good and services worldwide in the future.
