Private housing starts could decline by a further 32% in 2009, according to the latest forecast published by the Construction Products Association (CPA).
The predicted decline, which would take the sector to levels not seen since 1952, is on top of a 43% reduction in 2008. The CPA says overall construction output is set to fall by nearly 9% in 2009 and a further 4% in 2010 – the greatest fall since the early 1980s.
Private commercial work has collapsed as the retail sector cuts back on investment plans, while orders for new offices have fallen 47%.
“The only sectors where construction output is forecast to increase are linked to public spending,” said Michael Ankers, CPA chief executive.
“The Building Schools for the Future programe has finally got off the ground and spending on education projects is expected to grow by 28% over the next two years.”
He said without the anticipated increase in public sector programmes, the construction industry would be faced with a 15% fall in output during the next two years.
