Interrupted and unsettling trading patterns during the first six months of 2020 made the second half of the year more difficult to predict. Initial forecasts expected average growth to decline by 20%, but the final forecast is more optimistic, showing year on year growth declining by 11.5%.
For this latest forecast, the BMF worked alongside the Department of Business energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) to collate and analyse data from a wide range of sources in addition to data derived from its own Builders Merchants Building Index, which has tracked merchant market performance since July 2014.
Looking further ahead to 2021, the forecast includes two trading scenarios relating to Brexit, the first moving on from the transition period with a deal, the second without a deal.
