TTJ canvassed industry organisations and companies about their plans and predictions for the sector for the year ahead. Respondents identified challenges due to the wider economic situation and geopolitical tensions, but they also see market opportunities and continuing strong prospects for timber generally given its capacity for reinvention and its increasingly relevant environmental credentials. Mike Jeffree reports
David Hopkins
Timber Development UK chief executive
Most of us will have been pleased to see the back of 2024 as the sense of stagnation and sluggishness was felt from Downing Street to the High Street.
This was compounded internationally as elections were held in every major nation on earth, including our own, meaning companies kept their powder dry hoping the outlook would be sunnier on the other side of the polling booth.
Sadly, this hasn’t been the case. For most people, elections have not immediately brought the hoped-for injection of energy back into people’s lives.
In fact, if you believe some of the press coverage, you might be thinking that last year’s mantra of ‘survive until 25’ is now going to be ‘stagnate until 28’. However,
I refuse to be that gloomy. There are still some very good signs in the year ahead. Despite the negative messaging, some of the government actions have been quite positive, albeit with a longer-term vision than a short-term sugar rush.
The attempts to increase investment in infrastructure, especially housing, transport, energy and broadband will be key to improving productivity growth.
Moves to streamline planning, a major barrier to growth, are very welcome, along with ambitious targets for housing, whether realistic or not!
The introduction of the Future Homes Standard this year will also strengthen the case for timber construction systems due to its superior thermal and carbon performance.
Finally, the government’s attempts to upskill and enlarge the labour force could also bear fruit for our sector through the creation of Skills England to co-ordinate vocational training. It’s too early to tell, but there is certainly a lot of work going on to review current curriculums and skills provision.
So, at least we can say the ambition is there, and the positive mood from the Financial Times’ survey of economists and business leaders suggest that the UK will outgrow its peers in France and Germany.
However, there is still much that can go wrong in this analysis. The return of President Trump to the White House is likely to bring a great deal of instability and trade disruption, not least through his stated plan to introduce tariffs on all goods.
However, within Britain itself, I think the outlook is far stronger than some of the mood music may suggest. What will be key, is that the industry is prepared to powerfully make the case on why we should all build with wood.
We must show that the timber industry is essential to deliver on the government’s house building mission. They must know that, with lightweight timber frame systems, we can deliver the high-quality, low-carbon housing we all want – right now – while improving productivity throughout the supply chain.
Timber Development UK (TDUK), together with the Structural Timber Association (STA), and Confederation of Forest Industries (Confor) – through our work as joint secretariat of the Timber in Construction Roadmap – will be ensuring that timber is front of mind for the government and politicians of all stripes and colours during the year.
Making sure we can communicate the benefits of timber – as a low carbon material and low energy manufacturing base – will be particularly important in the next few months ahead of the Industrial Strategy, which is due in the spring.
We have some really exciting initiatives in the coming months, which aim to do exactly that. Keep an eye out for more news and announcements from TDUK – both on our website, and through our friends, such as the TTJ.
Andrew Carpenter, Structural Timber Association chief executive
In 2025, the Structural Timber Association (STA), in partnership with Timber Development UK (TDUK) and the Confederation of Forest Industries (Confor), is looking to build on the Timber in Construction Roadmap, a key initiative that aligns with the UK’s goal of delivering 1.5 million homes while embedding sustainable practices across the industry. By prioritising decarbonisation as a cornerstone of growth, STA’s aim is to ensure timber remains a critical solution in addressing climate challenges and meeting net-zero targets.
A significant focus of the STA’s advocacy in 2025 will be lobbying for the inclusion of Part Z into building regulations.
This crucial regulatory change would mandate the assessment and reporting
of embodied carbon in construction projects, aligning the industry with
modern sustainability standards. By championing this integration, the STA aims to drive systemic change and prioritise environmental accountability in the built environment.
Collaboration will be instrumental in achieving these ambitious goals. The STA continues strengthening its relationships within the Confederation of Timber Industries (CTI), working closely with key partners TDUK and Confor. These partnerships are vital in creating a unified voice for timber, promoting its benefits, and addressing industry-wide challenges.
Additionally, the STA’s ongoing collaboration with Homes England underscores its commitment to aligning timber construction with national housing strategies, ensuring timber solutions are part of the conversation in addressing housing needs.
Internally, the STA has expanded its resources to ensure that it can deliver for its members. With new expertise and capacity, the STA’s enhanced team – affectionately dubbed the ‘A-Team’ – can deliver on its goals with renewed focus and energy. This strengthened internal structure ensures that the STA is well-positioned to drive meaningful change, support its members effectively, and respond dynamically to the evolving needs of the sector.
2025 is positioned as the ‘year of delivery’ for the STA, marking a pivotal moment for the structural timber industry. With clear objectives, robust collaborations, and a commitment to sustainability, the STA is addressing current challenges and laying the groundwork for long-term industry transformation.
Through the combined efforts of its members, partners, and stakeholders, the STA is helping to establish timber as a material of choice, championing its role in building a greener, more sustainable future for construction in the UK.
Alastair Kerr
Wood Panel Industries Federation director-general
The script for the current economic outlook was written over the past three or four years and is shaped by the cumulative impact of both global and regional geopolitical events and some national self-inflicted impacts which still weigh on the country post Brexit.
Whatever your political leanings, you would normally expect a boost to the economy when a party wins a significant majority, but unfortunately that doesn’t seem to have materialised this time round and some of the autumn Budget announcements only add to industries’ costs and don’t seem to have improved consumer confidence. The latter is particularly important because 80% of UK consumption is domestic.
Looking to 2025 there is some optimism, but this really needs to be seen against the backdrop of gloomy 2024 numbers where UK GDP and inflation bounced around. Energy costs remain challenging and private and public house building slowed (down 9-10% on 2023).
For the panel sector, housebuilding, refurbishment, repair and maintenance are key market segments where growth will drive demand for panels either within the building structure or in subsequent furniture. Whilst the government seems committed to it, no one on the Construction Leadership Council believes that the government target of 1.5 million new homes by 2030 will be met because there isn’t a quick fix to some of the key structural inhibitors such as planning and skills shortages. Targets aside, there is an expectation of modest growth in these sectors in 2025 and the key for business will be to see (however modest) steady but sustained growth, as it is this which helps with investor confidence.
The feedback from the Construction Products Association is that there is improvement in housebuilding under way, albeit from a very low base, with new
sites opening and brick deliveries and forward orders improving. New homes are having to meet tighter energy efficiency standards, which should help play to timber frame’s strengths. Nearly every major housebuilder has a timber frame facility within their portfolio, so we can hope that the percentage of timber frame homes in Englandwillprogressivelyincreasefromthe 16% estimated by NHBC (2023).
The export market is being hampered by equally subdued demand in Europe particularly in Germany. The European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator in October was 3% below the long-term average and looks set to continue flat lining into 2025.
Certainly, the first half of 2025 looks to continue with the challenging market conditions, but progressive companies often invest when market conditions are difficult, either to enhance their offering or to prepare for growth in better times. I see signs of this within the panel sector.
Stuart Goodall
Confor chief executive
So far, the 2020s have proven to be a volatile decade, with big swings in markets and prices set against a backdrop of global political uncertainty and a cost-of-living crisis.
With that volatility in mind, it’s difficult to predict whether 2025 will be a good year or not for the UK forestry and timber industry. There are some optimistic signs that both supply and demand factors could be improving, but events could easily turn everything on its head.
Amongst the positives is the message I took from the excellent TDUK Softwood Conference. Olle Berg of Setra forecast that global demand could edge up while global supply could remain tight, given the widespread damage we’ve seen to forests in Canada and Central Europe, plus restrictions on wood fibre supply in Sweden. Such a scenario should see timber prices edge up, which would be positive for UK sawn and panel producers.
A lot will depend on the UK market for fencing and pallets, and they will be influenced by the strength of the economy and consumer spending. These could go either way. On the one hand the negative narrative of the Labour government has undermined consumer confidence, and businesses face significant additional operating costs with the increases to employers’ national insurance and the minimum wage. On the other hand, a steady reduction in interest rates is expected alongside a real term rise in wages. How those competing factors will play out is both key and difficult to predict.
The UK government’s support for the Timber in Construction Roadmap is expected in the new year, and in time that will hopefully add to demand. We will also be looking to the new government to work with Confor on the implementation of the National Wood Strategy for England. Both of these would signal government’s support for the industry.
Looking at the forest end of the supply chain, timber prices are generally expected to continue to trend upwards. I don’t expect levels of new planting to surpass last year’s modern-day record, but I do expect the upward trend across the UK to continue, with a key confidence indicator being the proportion that is conifer.
While there are no national elections scheduled for 2025, I expect we’ll still be establishing the scope and depth of the UK government’s support for the industry and of course there are devolved elections in May 2026. In Scotland, the SNP government has already fired the election starting pistol with a highly political budget on December 4. In summary, 2025 may be less eventful (but also potentially more positive) than 2024 for timber sales, forestry activity generally and woodland creation. And that would be very welcome!
Helen Hewitt
British Woodworking Federation chief executive
As we kick off 2025, I am filled with immense pride in how the British Woodworking Federation (BWF), its members, and the broader woodworking industry have navigated the last 12 months. From a shifting political landscape to economic uncertainties, our sector has shown real resilience and adaptability.
The past year brought a mix of hurdles, including a change in government and a budget that both supports and complicates our sector’s efforts. Despite these obstacles, glimmers of optimism lie ahead.
According to the Construction Products Association (CPA), construction output is forecast to grow by 2.5% in 2025, with promising indicators in private housing, repair, maintenance, and improvement (RMI), and industrial projects. These growth areas signal opportunities for our members, especially as we align our efforts with key industry trends and government priorities.
The government’s focus on skills, education reform, planning improvements, and support for manufacturing SMEs and green industries also offers potential benefits for our sector. While tangible impacts are yet to be seen, the BWF remains committed to advocating for our sector by fostering relationships with policymakers and collaborating with industry partners.
Since the launch of the Timber in Construction Roadmap (TiC) by Defra, the BWF has been playing a leading role, particularly in driving skills development to support the effort aimed at increasing the safe use of timber and advancing the net- zero agenda.
In 2025, as we align our Build It Better with Wood campaign with the TiC roadmap, we aim to promote timber as the material of choice while highlighting the expertise and innovation of our profession.
Workforce shortages remain a critical issue, with the construction industry needing over 250,000 additional workers by 2028 to meet housing demand and retrofit existing building stock. Added to this, the Building Safety Act has heightened the focus on competence, emphasising the skills, knowledge, experience, and behaviours (SKEB) required for building work.
Throughout the next 12 months the BWF will continue addressing these demands through initiatives like the National Occupational Standards (NOS) reviews, competency frameworks, and increased apprenticeship opportunities. Events such as National Apprenticeship Week and our BWF Member Awards also showcase the exceptional talent within our sector, inspiring the next generation of professionals into woodworking and joinery.
2025 will be a key year for BWF for providing advice and guidance for BWF members and the broader construction industry to navigate regulatory change. From transitioning to European standards for timber fire doors to ongoing government consultations, we continue to make inroads to relevant stakeholders to voice the views of BWF members. Meanwhile, BWF member services such as our technical helpline, monthly webinars, and in-person meetings ensure that members are informed and supported through any changes.
As we look ahead to 2025, our industry faces both challenges and exciting opportunities. We are a resilient, strong and adaptable profession, and together, we are ready to tackle what the year holds to help us build an even stronger future for the woodworking and joinery industry.
James Angel, Danzer UK managing director
The hardwood sector anticipates a tough trading environment in Q1 and Q2 of 2025. This is largely driven by geopolitical factors dampening consumer confidence. Additionally, the construction industry remains sluggish. Last year, the industry experienced several significant setbacks, including the collapse of ISG, with some builders now resorting to selling properties to fund future house builds.
Rising long-term borrowing costs are also impacting the market. Historically, such increases strengthened the currency, but the pound has declined from US$1.26 o US$1.22 [at time of writing], reflecting uncertainty about the UK economy. Compounding this, households are coming off fixed mortgage rates, leading to higher monthly payments and reduced spending on home improvement and DIY projects.
The negative economic outlook from government and organisations such as the CBI has further eroded confidence. While managing expectations is necessary, overly pessimistic messaging can harm sentiment.
The high-end market, such as luxury marine and building developments, remains resilient, with businesses reporting strong order books for 2025. Similarly, kitchen manufacturers are seeing strong demand at both the premium and budget ends. However, the middle of the market is under significant pressure.
The sector is also re-evaluating assumptions about a Labour government. Traditionally, increased public sector building was expected, but tight resources suggest a focus on staffing existing infrastructure, such as the NHS, over new construction. One encouraging policy is the government’s plan to build 1.5 million new homes over five years.
Supply challenges persist, especially in the US, where sawn hardwood production has plummeted from a peak of 15 billion board feet annually to below 5 billion in 2024. This is partly due to reduced demand from China, a key export market, leaving no surplus timber available for immediate purchase.
The way forward lies in innovation and product differentiation. Engineered hardwood products, such as finger-jointed scantlings, are gaining traction in the UK, aligning with broader European acceptance. These products deliver consistent quality and higher yields, tailored to customer specifications. Instead of selling based on species, the focus is shifting toward yield, end-use applications and technical specifications.
Engineered and technical veneers are also driving growth. Products like the Danzer Vinterio range, which is made from hardwood lumber components and exhibits a solid, plank-effect appearance, and the rift-type Danzer Linea veneer, which maintains the integrity of specific species without bleaching or colouring, are appealing to customers. These products offer advantages such as cost predictability, consistent availability, and enhanced yield. Additionally, the success of 3D veneers, capable of forming around compound curves, aligns with architectural and design trends favouring complex shapes.
Exploring lesser-known hardwood species also presents opportunities. Although adoption has been slow in the conservative UK market, these species gain traction when traditional options, such as iroko, become harder to source.
Adapting to technological changes is critical, with some customers now conducting up to 60% of their business via digital means. Danzer UK has also brought in fresh talent to introduce new ideas and drive innovation.
The push for return to office-based work is another potential growth area, as it could drive investment in office refurbishments and fit-outs.
Finally, despite the expected challenges in the first half of the year, there is growing optimism for broader market improvements in the latter half of 2025.
Gabriele de Col, SCM Group UK managing director
No one denies that we live in complex times due to well-known factors linked
to the international macroeconomic and geopolitical contexts. 2024, on balance, could align with the ‘pre-Covid’ economic dynamics, in an industry linked to real estate and to long-term market trends that are structurally destined to grow.
The pandemic years were exceptional in every respect, including in terms of public stimuli to the economy. Now we are back to normal.
In this context, SCM has focused on continuing its strategic path to improve market share and launch new products dedicated to solving different production needs, from windows and door production to timber construction, from nesting CNC machining centres to edgebanding.
SCM is gaining market share in engineering projects for large-scale industry, also leveraging on acquisitions like that of Tecno Logica, a developer of highly innovative, productive and flexible industrial systems.
At the same time, we have been consolidating our role as a preferred supplier in the small and medium woodworking industry, focused on product value offering and local service support.
With regards to the choices made by SCM over the years, we remain convinced that it is not enough to act as a technology partner. It’s paramount to continue investing in services and skills to support customers long term.
To this end, in 2024 we made significant investments in servitisation and digitisation. We’ve rolled out advanced services like Maestro Connect software and WinMes manufacturing execution software, a tool which enables companies to optimise production processes in real time, to small, medium and large companies. These will continue to be a priority in 2025 and beyond.
SCM’s main objectives remain to continue to grow market share and broaden the scope of the customer relationships through excellence both in technology application consulting and provision of after-sales services.
Following our Windorflex high productivity door and window centre,
2025 machine launches for the solid wood sector will include our new high- performance moulder Topset XXL. In terms of performance and solutions adopted, this will outperform our quick change over and highly reliable superset nt. The aim is to expand the range of moulding machines that SCM is able to offer, meeting new customer requirements. Increased working sections, spindle speeds of up to 12,000rpm, compositions customisable to all customer requirements, and feed tables with micrometric settings for optimal tooling set- up are just some of the innovative features of the new machine, which will be in action at Ligna 2025.
Another successful introduction has been the Oikos XS CNC range for timber construction, a more compact and competitively priced version of the Oikos XL.
SCM will continue to invest in innovative solutions for timber construction and CLT panels machining, helping facilitate the growth of eco-housing and the use of wood as the central renewable material for the construction industry.
