Father Christmas put a prediction for 2006 in my stocking – it’s not going to be as bad as you think.
Judging by the reports I have been getting from members, business in the run-up to Christmas was characterised by the words, uninspiring, underwhelming or just quiet. But it was hard for people to a put a finger on just why, especially when one or two members were reporting great figures.
My word to describe the market is the one I would apply to the economy as a whole – cautious. Economic indicators have been moving slowly south and the government has an air of fin de siècle about it. Housebuilding is static and construction output is declining. One could be forgiven for thinking things really are bad. And as each story is publicised we get less and less confident about the future and spend or invest less, thereby accelerating the trends.
However, in reality the only thing that is negative is the currency media commentators and we consumers give to these stories. Things might not be as good as they were – but they are not bad. They just tend to get magnified by comparison with the good times.
So Gordon Brown was way out on his growth forecasts, but 1.75% isn’t bad and it’s forecast to climb. So housebuilding isn’t growing but it’s still a pretty big market and destined to grow – and look at the increasing market share for timber frame.
There is always a danger when we have had it so good that we can talk ourselves into a depression when it ends. My message for 2006 is listen to Father Christmas and be more optimistic.
