The Swedish economy is beginning to improve. GDP growth bottomed out at the end of 2001 but it is now on its way up – forecast at 1.9% this year – because of a rapid rise in household consumption and an expansionary fiscal policy.

According to the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER), whose trends were presented to the ECE Timber Committee, preliminary data for the first half of 2002 show “considerably higher” exports of primary products than expected, partly a result of the weakness of the krona. These exports are expected to increase by 2.8% this year and growth will continue into 2003.

Faster global growth in 2003 will provide a good basis for export growth, despite an expected appreciation of the krona, says the NIER. The Institute believes that, by the end of 2004, the krona will appreciate to SKr8.80/e1 and SKr8.4/US$1.

Lars-Göran Olsson, of Swedish Wood, says that, in 2001, Swedish exports of sawn and planed softwood amounted to 10.9 million m3. For 2002 a minor increase to 11.4 million m3 is estimated. Nearly all the extra production is destined for countries outside Europe, he says, with the US the fastest growing market. From January to July, exports to the US amounted to 315,000m3 – an increase of 83%. There is a clear trend of bigger volumes being shipped to countries outside Europe: during 2001, 21% of total exports were shipped outside Europe and it is likely that the figure will be higher this year.

&#8220With good demand from European customers and large shipments to Africa, Asia and the US, stocks of sawn goods at the sawmills have been reduced to very low levels.

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Lars-Göran Olsson, Swedish Wood

With good demand from European customers and large shipments to Africa, Asia and the US, stocks of sawn goods at the sawmills have been reduced to very low levels, says Mr Olsson.

The weakness of the krona and increased capacity in Russia and the Baltics led to roundwood imports being reduced by 2.3 million m3 in 2001 from a record high of 11.8 million m3 in 2000. Latvia remains Sweden’s largest supplier of roundwood but shipments from Russia and Estonia have fallen by 50%.

After a rapid increase during 1990-2000 Swedish production has entered a slower phase of expansion. Production thus increased from 11.7 million m3 1990 to 16.2 million m3 in 2000 – an increase of 45 million m3 or 38%. During 2001, total production amounted to 16 million m3, but a minor increase is forecast this year to 16.5 million m3.

For many years there has been a steady reduction in the number of sawmills in Sweden and this trend will continue as more company mergers are expected. The Department of Forest Products and Markets at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences in Uppsala recently completed an analysis of the sawmilling industry. According to the study, in 2000 Sweden had 49 sawmills with an annual production of over 100,000m3 compared with 22 in 1990.