The predominant emotion within the UK joinery trade appears to be relief. While the media has been full of stories of job losses, imminent recession and battered consumer confidence, the joinery sector seems in general to have avoided the worst of the impact. According to some leading players, order and enquiry levels have outstripped those of last year while the forward position is also favourable.
Of course, those companies whose activity levels have remained relatively stable remain cautious about future business prospects. Those dealing with major contractors appreciate that orders take several months to come through and that the true impact on business confidence of September 11 has yet to be reflected in the order book.
The City of London is identified as one area suffering from a more pronounced case of nerves while other areas of the country continue to enjoy reasonable levels of activity.
One contact commented: ‘We saw some hesitation following September 11 where people seemed more reluctant to make decisions. But that lasted about four weeks and now we are catching up. The last four weeks have been better than they were last year.’ Another said: ‘We have just had a couple of our best sales months for a while. There are no real signs of recession – but these are early days yet for the statistics.’
A key period, several contacts agreed, will be the early months of next year in which the tone for 2002 as a whole may be set. Interestingly, several contacts reported reasonable levels of business until the end of this year and booked forward for the summer of next year, but no great volume of work for the first quarter of 2002. Noises from the government at least appear positive with regard to public/private partnership projects, with the suggestion that substantial funds are to be made available for work in, for example, the health and education sectors.
Holding up
And what of the present? The widespread view is that business may have slowed in recent months but that no obvious link can be made to September 11. In the mass production joinery sector, several contacts said activity in August was better than expected, before adding that business held up relatively well in both September and October. The last two months of the year were expected to be less productive but this would not represent any departure from the norm.
‘Business is shelving gently downwards rather than sliding,’ confirmed one contact. ‘We are reasonably satisfied with how this year has gone, but we’re not hanging out the flags.’ Despite hopes of an increase in public sector work next year, he was not anticipating any major business growth in 2002 because of the general economic downturn.
A contact for another leading doors, windows and staircase manufacturer believed 2001 would ultimately represent an improvement over 2000. ‘Figures for new build are suggesting a sharp downturn for 2002 but these could just be blips. You need at least three months data for them to be meaningful,’ he added.
The door sector remains extremely competitive although sales levels have been reasonable to healthy, particularly with regard to doorsets. A contact at one leading manufacturer suggested doorsets were gaining in popularity ‘because people now want a solution’. Premdor has attributed good take-up of its Speedset interior doorset system partly to the product ‘simplifying the build process on site’.
Another trend mentioned by several contacts was towards light-coloured doors, for example, in oak or ash veneer. ‘These seem to be having a revival,’ he said and suggested this may reflect attempts to match doors with increasingly popular hardwood flooring. Another mass production sector source pointed to a similar trend in staircases and balustrades, with customers asking for the likes of oak to match floors and doors. Also in the staircase sector, there continues to be a growing demand for assembled stairs.
It has been confirmed that staircase specialist Thomas Lowe Joinery, part of the Benlowe group, will be transferring from Cannock over the Christmas period to a site in Brownhills that offers more opportunities for expansion. According to a spokesperson, the move reflected the increasing levels of demand experienced by its staircase business.
Sales of timber windows have maintained a reasonable momentum in recent weeks, with a continuation of the trend in favour of fully-glazed factory-finished units. One contact said that, despite reasonable timber window sales, his mass production company was now keen to push on with the development of a fully-glazed, factory-finished capability ‘because we realise its importance to the market’. Another contact ventured: ‘People are looking to have more work done off site because of de-skilling and, at the same time, they see the aesthetic appeal of timber windows.’
Another leading manufacturer spoke of a particularly good level of orders for vertical sliding sash and fully reversible windows. Leading up to Christmas, his company was in the ‘unusual’ position of having to recruit more labour in order to meet demand. A spokesperson explained: ‘Customers are putting us under pressure for delivery and we are telling people who are hesitating to make their mind up or they will endanger delivery dates.’
Several contacts suggested that the introduction of the new Part L of the Building Regulations would increase the focus on specifications and that, in turn, this would have a benefit for fully-glazed, factory-finished timber windows. For its part, the British Woodworking Federation (BWF) has devised ‘fact cards’ on the new Part L, which affects replacement as well as new build windows. The cards are aimed local authorities and specifiers to assist understanding of the key elements of the new Part L, such as how the regulation affects the specification and purchase of windows, as well as how to measure ‘U’ values.
The BWF has reported a busy time for its Timber Window Accreditation Scheme. In early November, the organisation launched a campaign to highlight the best way to glaze timber windows on site. Backed by trade press advertising and production of 6,000 CDs and videos, the initiative is targeted not only at site glaziers but also relevant local authority personnel. The BWF is placing increasing emphasis on aspects of installation since poor work in this area reflects on the products themselves.
The BWF has also launched an initiative to provide counter staff at builders merchants with pocket guides to answer the most frequently asked customer questions relating to Certifire fire doors.
Q Mark seminar
Meanwhile, BM TRADA has announced that it is to run a trial seminar and exhibition covering its Q Mark product certification scheme. Aimed mainly at architects and scheduled for the Business Design Centre in London on November 24, the event will enable Q Mark members to show off their range of products – including fire doors and enhanced security windows and doorsets – while delegates will be able to hear presentations on the latest technical developments.
One issue to emerge from the mass production sector was the implementation of ‘Secured by Design’. According to one source, there had been instances of building control officials varying implementation requirements at a local level – sometimes, he thought, to the detriment of the overall specification.
From the architectural joinery sector, it was suggested that certain projects for which architects’ drawings had been completed might have gone on the back burner rather than out to tender owing to the downturn in business confidence. ‘It has been busy for most of the year,’ said one joinery firm manager. ‘Business is slowing up a little now, but we would expect it to.’
Another contact remained positive about the gradual easing in enquiries that he had witnessed since August. Company lead times had fallen from their peak of 12-14 weeks, during which period some orders had to be turned away through lack of capacity. Times now quoted to customers were generally between six and seven weeks – ‘which is about right for joinery work,’ he said.
Enquiries are continuing at a reasonable if unspectacular level, with office fit-out and refurbishment jobs seemingly more numerous than retail sector projects.
Most of the architectural joinery firms contacted this week were confident that turnover goals for 2001 would be reached and that the year would prove to be at least as good as 2000 in overall business terms. Opinions on prospects for next year are mixed: one joinery manager said a substantial volume of business had been booked, while several others believed the early part of the year could prove difficult. But as one source put it: ‘We are not going to go hungry next year.’
Popular species
In terms of species in demand, US maple and steamed black walnut are maintaining their popularity while one contact noted a significant upturn in demand this year for imported steamed beech. Another operator noted a growing level of enquiries for everyday household items – such as table tops and infill panels – in larch, birch and poplar. This was possibly a sign that people were trying to make a match with furniture from the latest breed of giant furniture retail outlets, he said.
Prices and availability of timber have been giving little cause for concern or comment, but the labour situation within the architectural joinery sector remains uncomfortably tight. Several contacts bemoaned their difficulties in obtaining skilled staff or the fact that skill levels were on a long-term downward path. One experienced joinery manager envisaged potential problems in getting trainees through the new NVQ Level 2 within the three-year apprenticeship period. ‘This could mean that they don’t start NVQ Level 3 before the end of the apprenticeship period,’ he said. ‘They should have reviewed the training period when they reviewed the NVQs.’
