‘In the country of the blind, the one-eyed man is King’. Well, it’s rather harsh but true and at the moment there seems to be so much uncertainty, we’re very likely to latch onto any news to try and get some sensible forecast for the year ahead.
It seems to me that whilst there will be many regional variations and certain specific markets will have their own peaks and troughs, 2008 has started off at a reasonable pace. But what’s going to happen if the credit crunch really ‘crunches’ and recession bites?
Deciding what to do about investment when facing a potential downturn is usually a ‘no brainer’ – you slash costs. However, with a reasonable start and some orders in hand, surely it’s best to keep investing, to make the most of it?
The timber trade is facing a range of threats from raw material cost hikes to competitor products muscling in and because of our diversity it is difficult to unify our message. We risk being scattered simply because we fail to unite on certain basic core themes.
In a recent TTJ issue there was a piece about the possibility of legislation across the EU to outlaw imported illegal timber; this would be similar to the US’s Lacey Act. We need to face up to the reality of our position and do something about it quickly, before other parties arrange things for us.
Let’s try to accept that there may be some stormy sections this year, but also agree that timber will still be bought and sold, so we need to work together to meet the demands of government and our customers in the long term.
Looking through one eye at the moment, I reckon that we should all embrace a unified method of checking and auditing imported, uncertified timber, along the lines of the TTF’s Responsible Purchasing Policy, to ensure that other parties take us seriously and credibly. I may not be able to forecast the economic outlook for any of us, but I think I can see where we need to head for on timber verification and what will happen if we don’t – what do you reckon?
