Travelling around the country speaking to all parts of the supply chain, there are a number of issues that we will all need to keep our eye on during the coming months.

Firstly, the economy. Everyone expects the Q4 2009 figures to confirm we have left recession. Good news, but not as good as some would have you believe. Our main market, construction, is forecast to have another difficult year. Coupled with the hangover impact of 2009, this will make the first half at least quite difficult on the demand side.

Having said that, wood and wood products are less exposed to some of the major infrastructure projects that have been squeezed by the recession and will be cut after the election. Our biggest construction market is RMI and the decline forecast for this is less than other sectors of construction. These forecasts have higher margins of error because so much of RMI spend depends on consumer confidence. But most businesses tell me, after a dreadful 2008 and early 2009, generally things in this sector have been OK.

Secondly there’s business behaviour. It is interesting that insolvency practioneers budget for more business as economies come out of recession. The reason is simple. Companies tend to ignore the need for increased working capital to finance growth and over-extend.

Thirdly, wood supply. Recession has hit supplier countries hard; there’s good demand from other markets; woodfuel use is rising; and the economy is going to grow, albeit slowly. The net result is that wood buyers in 2010 will be very busy!

Fourthly, it’s the environment, stupid. The latest TTF/DFID report shows over 80% of wood used in the UK is now certified sustainable. The European Council agreed a position in December to make environmental due diligence law – and it’s already a condition of TTF membership. America has seen its first prosecution under the anti-illegal wood Lacey Act and in Copenhagen the one area there was agreement was on the environmental benefit of wood products. So clearly, the sustainability agenda is central to the long term success of the timber business. If anyone can persuade me otherwise I’ll buy them a new year pint.

John White is chief executive of The Timber Trade Federation.