It should be concerning to everyone when a mature economy with the perfect conditions for growing a wide range of tree species should be in a potentially precarious position in relation to future wood supply. But that’s exactly where we might find ourselves.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrates the need to spread risk and not put all our wooden eggs in the import basket. UK and global demand for wood is set to soar, but our own supplies are set to fall from the late 2030s unless governments in England and Wales act fast and, like Scotland, take responsibility for investing in our domestic wood supply.
UK: THE BIG NET IMPORTER
The UK is the world’s second largest importer of wood after China, importing around £7.5bn annually, because it currently grows only around 20% of its wood requirement, leaving it exposed to a very significant balance (80%) needing to be imported from other countries.
In 2020 the UK imported 48 million m3 of wood products, of which 22% was sawnwood and wood-based panels destined for use by the building and construction industry. By 2021 this had increased by 15%, with the UK importing an average of one million m3 of timber and panel products every month – a rare occurrence according to Timber Development UK. Specifically, softwood import volumes increased by over 21%, hardwoods by 26% and plywoods by over 13%, demonstrating increased demand even during ongoing Covid restrictions.
Beyond the UK, it is estimated by the World Bank that global demand for wood products will treble by 2050, driven by an increased population of 7.8 billion today, to 10 billion in less than 30 years. This huge increase is being driven primarily by higher living standards, greater urbanisation – including China’s almost inexhaustible need for timber for both construction and manufacturing – and greater use of what is increasingly seen as a more sustainable building material.
These trends are being compounded at a time when a number of other global developments are coalescing. In particular, security of supply of natural resources is under ever greater threat from geo-political upheavals, as witnessed by the Russian- Ukrainian crisis and soaring energy prices.
While the UK may not be directly affected by Vladimir Putin’s incursion into Ukraine – overall Russian timber imports into the UK are relatively small at only 1.25% – Russia remains the world’s largest supplier of timber globally. With potentially longer-term economic sanctions placed against Russian exports, there will inevitably be significant disruption to supply chains, price hikes and pressure on countries typically not only supplied by Russia – but also Ukraine and Belarus – to seek building material imports from other sources – including those Scandinavian countries that the UK relies upon so heavily. Both in the medium and longer terms the UK will be seeking to secure greater imports of wood at times when pressures on global supply remain.
In addition to being the largest overall exporter of wood products, Russia is also the largest exporter of sawn timber. Although the UK only imports 6% of its sawn softwood imports and 7% of its plywood from Russia, the impact on the UK’s building and construction sector will be much wider, as the overall global availability of wood products will be reduced and competition likely to intensify considerably.
Even before the Russian invasion, 2021 was a year when demand for wood outstripped supply and timber prices rose significantly – with imported sawn or planed wood jumping by more than a fifth during the summer – leading to an increase in construction costs and delays in completing projects. The National Federation of Builders called for ministers to step in and urge councils to show greater flexibility on materials changes, while the Building Back Britain Commission warned in November that the government’s housebuilding targets might be at risk.
Timber prices, for instance, are spiking because of the switch in demand towards lower-density housing over city centre apartments, with more wood needed for elements such as roof joists.
To add to potential supply chain woes, there also remains some uncertainty of supply due to Brexit. New regulations and disrupted shipments can mean materials from overseas are often delayed or challenging to source. Labour shortages have also played a part, including the lack of HGV drivers.
While the upward trend in the UK and global demand for wood is clear, the UK government’s own forecasts show that supplies of home-grown wood will fall from the late 2030s, meaning there will be less wood available in future than there is now.
AN OVERLOOKED PARTNER FOR NET ZERO
The UK’s commitment to become net zero by 2050 is, in part, dependent on the greater sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2) for which productive tree planting in the UK can make a significant contribution.
Wood in all its versatile forms – from high value engineered wood products, roof and floor trusses, roof linings, timber frames, insulation, cladding, volumetric chipboard flooring, doors, windows, skirting and door frames – is a unique natural material that is truly sustainable. Not only is wood a readily available substitute for many materials which have much higher emissions loads, including brick, concrete, steel and polyurethane, but the tree from which it evolves sequesters large amounts of CO2 as it grows.
Wood fibre insulation, in particular, is an excellent choice for insulating homes and has impressive green credentials and there is currently interest in establishing a manufacturing plant in the UK. Recyclable, compostable and dimensionally stable, it is typically a by-product from waste wood from the sawmill industry, further adding to its sustainable characteristics.
There are also indications from scientific studies that wood finishings in homes and other structures can provide significant biophilic benefits. It is safe to say that no other construction material can match all the advantages that natural wood provides. And with the UK facing the likely scenario of increased competition for future imports, it is little wonder that Confor is highlighting the declining supply of UK domestic wood supply and the potential risk this poses to major industries, including construction and manufacturing.
THE OPPORTUNITY IS HERE
The UK has ideal conditions for growing wood to build low-carbon homes and is a global leader in certifying that its forests are sustainably managed, yet while the UK government has stated its ambition for more tree planting, there has been little action on the ground outside of Scotland. Confor is now calling for much greater impetus behind those aspirations to ensure we have more home-grown wood to help meet increasing construction demand and not just rely on increasing imports.
The causes of the UK’s current position whereby wood supply is falling just at the time we need it to increase, is complex and ranges from outdated perceptions of productive forestry to a disconnect in thinking between consumers demand for wood products and understanding the need to plant the forests that they come from. It also encompasses significant hesitation on behalf of farmers and other land owners to invest in longer term planting projects.
While productive tree planting can deliver real financial benefits to rural economies and contribute to the UK’s net zero strategy, the focus of government support continues to narrowly be on flood prevention and the planting of native woodland solely for biodiversity, alongside an assumption that this means more native woodland and fewer trees grown to produce wood. While these are critically important activities, the importance of future supplies of wood and the opportunity to deliver a wide range of benefits in modern, well-designed, mixed woodland has largely been overlooked.
Most of the land that could be planted with trees is currently agricultural. The Committee on Climate Change, noting a reduction of around 20% in cattle and sheep numbers over the last 20 years, anticipates a further drop of about 10% by 2050 and has called on government to encourage further reductions in dairy and red meat consumption. Much sheep farming is marginal and reliant on continued public subsidy. Confor has noted that diversifying land-use by the greater planting of productive trees will help more farms to become viable, while helping the farming sector to contribute to Net Zero.
The situation has also, on occasion, been made more challenging by vocal concerns expressed by certain environmental interest groups campaigning for native broadleaf tree planting only. This ignores the considerable biodiversity benefit that can be provided by planting mixed woodland in accordance with strict standards for forest design that have been developed with many of the same environmental groups.
Confor believes there is a step-change needed in attitudes towards productive tree planting, which, if achieved, will enable government to meet its own ambitious tree planting targets, and meet its ambitions to use more home-grown timber in construction – without one you can’t achieve the other.
Achieving this will require the government to communicate the benefits of productive woodland for the building of more energy efficient low carbon homes, carbon sequestration, as well as biodiversity and flood control, in order to combat the misconceptions that hamper productive tree planting applications.
We also need to ensure that our existing productive forests are optimised. We need to better avail of planting stocks that deliver higher productivity and improved quality of fibre for downstream processing and manufacture, with further research to guarantee we are using the most productive species. Some adoption of tree planting on shorter rotations (typically 15-19 years) could also supply manufacturers with wood for products like panel boards to fill the gap before new forests mature in 30-45 years’ time.
At the end of 2021, Confor undertook a survey to establish the level of public support for producing more home-grown wood. In summary, over 90% of respondents were unaware that the UK imported 80% of its wood resources; 50% of respondents saw domestic wood production as being important – and just behind the importance of food production – with a similar number agreeing that growing more domestic timber is beneficial for the environment. A further two-thirds said that there should be forest expansion.
Being a highly populated, mature economy with a limited land mass, the UK is likely to always be a major importer of wood products. However, we are in the enviable position of having excellent growing conditions for productive planting, a robust regulatory system in place to ensure good forestry management and a deep commitment to biodiversity and achieving Net Zero status by mid-century. The building blocks of a stronger domestic security of wood supply are in place. What is needed now is greater stimulus by the UK government in order to leverage these advantages into reality.
