The Medite 2016 Forum, launched last year, collated a range of views as to key trends and influences on wood consumption and the wood industry over 10 years. My brief for this Wood Futures article highlights one or two pertinent aspects over a shorter time scale.
The very short answer to part of the question is nothing much will happen regarding new wood products or markets in this time-frame that will cause the seismograph of trends to flicker outside normal parameters. Yes, there are new products and grades in development and being launched and there are ongoing changes in the patterns of supply distribution and consumption. However, very little of this is not known and recorded.
What will impact the wood industry more over the next two or three years are factors and issues that will affect most industries and a high proportion of the population. These fall mainly into the macro-economic arena with a bit of dabbling by politicians.
The UK has seen 17 years of falling and low interest rates. Nearly a full generation has enjoyed cheap and plentiful borrowing. House prices and consumer debt are at record levels. For all sectors of the population, rising interest rates, inflationary pressure and the imminent threat of a readjustment in house prices will bring about a sharp and unpleasant reversal of fortunes.
This is not a sudden feature. Interest rates have been ticking up since November 2003 but quarter percentage points on 3.75% up to about 5% or so, although burdensome, are manageable. By this time in 2008 we could be over 6% and still rising – and other consumer costs – council tax, rail fares, postage – are rising, too.
Taxation
The personal and corporate tax burden, direct and by stealth, has increased and will not diminish. The recent round of taxation on almost all forms of travel and the likelihood of new measures such as pay-as-you-go will bring about significant adjustments in our expenditure patterns. Most of these factors and issues historically have been unwelcome news for the wood industry. First the furniture industry suffers, then new housing, then the shopfitting and leisure sector and if the government is strapped for cash, public sector building.
I may be guilty of describing a worst-case scenario but the ducks are getting lined up to give us a bit of shock therapy.
Within this context, the wood industry has any number of more specific issues with which it must deal.
One group of pressures revolves around multi-faceted environmental issues. The problem the industry faces is that there is no clear and co-ordinated government policy. Some of you might forgive me for sounding cynical if I suggest that the chancellor sees green taxes as a whole new revenue stream rather than a means of funding solutions. Taxing air travel while expanding airports and runways is contradictory.
Restrictive controls
If anything the output of the wood industry is becoming subject to ever more restrictive controls – more so than most other materials. Professional users (architects, engineers, designers) have the responsibility to check that wood has jumped through all the hoops and I believe only the more enlightened will take the risk. What is urgently needed is a eureka moment when the world discovers a new, renewable, sustainable, attractive raw material. Education is the starting point on the road to enlightenment. The wood industry has to consider how to impart greater knowledge among the aforementioned professionals (and politicians!). It has to begin with their early training and, if need be, create parallel professional qualifications for wood design and engineering. Not only does this create more potential users but it establishes another cadre of lobbyists for wood.
