Summary
•Timber frame’s market share of new homebuilding has risen to 25%.
• The eventual economic upturn will reveal more efficient supply chains and building systems.
• Sustainability will continue to top the agenda.
• An estate agent’s report suggests more family homes will be built than flats.

Politicians and financial mandarins will argue until blue in the face over when we will come out of recession. However, one thing is certain: whenever the upturn happens, it will happen. With a national shortage of housing already a serious problem, plus the recession’s effective strangulation of the property market and many building projects, what will we see once the financial brakes are released?

“We won’t go back to the market as it was,” said Geoff Arnold, chairman of the UK Timber Frame Association (UKTFA)? and managing director of Pinewood Structures. “We are talking now about the ‘new market’ – a construction industry and supply chain profitable because of greater efficiency, driven by customers who demand higher quality, better designed and more energy efficient homes.

“Sustainability remains at the top of the agenda and, on a wider scale, worries of climate change continue to play a major part in shaping the energy policy of decision makers worldwide,” he added. “As a result I don’t expect any dilution in the UK’s drive towards all homes being zero carbon by 2016, whatever the outcome of a general election.

Part L and Code for Sustainable Homes

“The first steps will be felt properly later this year as we start to get grips with the new Part L proposals and people prepare for the Code for Sustainable Homes to really kick in. Similar standards for schools, new commercial buildings and other construction markets will also be in place within a very short time.”

Evidence to support the increasing implementation of the Code for Sustainable Homes is already piling up.

“Despite the economic times the sustainability requirements are gaining momentum,” said David Hart, development director of Prestoplan. “A number of schemes crossing our desks are asking for Code Level 4, 5, and occasionally 6. Even the major housebuilders are mindful of Code Level 3 becoming mandatory in 2010 which bodes well, as timber frame offers a viable solution.”

The environmental issues due to affect housebuilding in the near future – to the substantial benefit of timber frame construction – are only part of the changing picture. The current crisis and shrinkage of the industry has made everyone – private sector investors, developers, government agencies, housing associations – stop, think and review on a broad basis.

A new report published by estate agents Knight Frank predicts a number of consequent changes. More family homes will be built rather than flats, and significant ‘land transfers’ are taking place as land values have nose-dived by as much as 70% in places. Nervous developers have been selling off chunks of their land banks to a variety of investors. Not surprisingly they and other landowners are sitting on their plots waiting for land values to rise again, so hampering the government’s drive to deliver millions of new homes as quickly as possible. Whatever development is going ahead is, by comparison with the past few years, rather fragmented and on somewhat smaller scales.

Change of culture

Where timber frame construction could gain significant ground is in relation to this new, more considered approach to the investment involved in creating new homes.

Unlike the past frantic few years of building bonanza where quantity was key and much development was undertaken by very large organisations, the new approach is likely to involve smaller groups working in partnership and with a greater emphasis on quality.

Most experts agree that timber frame offers higher end-product quality than masonry construction. However, it also offers added benefits, including better efficiency, cost forecasting, budgeting, project management, financial control and, of course, speed of construction. Add that to timber frame’s undoubted environmental pluses and you can see how it’s likely to stride ahead in our brave new world.

In the meantime, everyone agrees that the rest of this year will be tough, not helped by the fact that currently six, eight, 10 or more timber frame companies may be tendering for the same job. Margins remain wafer thin.

Social housing

On the positive side, it seems the culture change in housebuilding generally, as predicted by the Knight Frank report, has begun to show itself already. “With the very sharp decline in 2008 on the availability of credit, over the past six months the social housing cross-funding financing models have broken down,” said Geoff Arnold. “As a consequence, RSLs and other social housing providers have had to restructure their finances. We believe they are through this now. We are seeing decisions to proceed on social housing schemes being made, and I hope the Budget’s promise of additional funds to restart stalled projects will continue to improve this situation.”

Although the Budget injection of £100m for local authorities to build energy-efficient homes is encouraging, it’s hardly a massive new source of housing provision. Fortunately, it seems that the money will be given to contractors who can build fast and cost-effectively. This should be another point in timber frame’s favour.

Christine Jones, director of sales at Robertson Timberkit, agreed: “We have already started to see developers needing to open sites quickly with the minimum of fuss, and they are choosing timber frame again exactly because of its responsiveness, predictability, speed of build and reduced wastage.”

Self-build market

“The self-build market is reasonably strong and will improve when lending flows again,” said Simon Orrells of Powys-based Frame Wise, commenting on other aspects of the current timber frame market in Wales. “The schools and public side also seems to be holding up; it is more a long-term view you have to take with this, but it is lovely to see timber frame holding its own. Public money continues to be available for the education sector and I think that this will be a key area for 2009.”

Stewart Milne Timber Systems sales and marketing director Gary Yeoman is also cautiously optimistic about the remainder of 2009 into 2010: “With the ever-increasing legislative demand impacting the construction industry, timber frame continues to tick all the boxes. We anticipate a gradual but consistent increase in activity across all sectors of the market. The opportunity for 2010 and beyond is substantial.”