Summary
• Demand for tropical hardwood is expected to rise to 136 million m³ per year by 2050.
• A solution would be to supplement natural forests with plantations.
• Teak is the ideal species to introduce variety and diversity into plantations.
• Teak planting could be carried out with other commercial crops for early returns.

Global annual demand for high grade tropical hardwoods is roughly 90 million m³, equivalent to filling the Empire State building more than seven times per month through the year – and it is expected to rise to 136 million m³ per year by 2050. Future demand will be met by sustainably managed natural forests and complementary hardwood plantations.

Natural tropical forests have, in theory, the potential to sustain, not only the output of timber, but also a wide range of goods and services, including: non-wood products, soil and water conservation, maintenance of biodiversity, maintenance of large quantities of carbon and protection of indigenous cultures. The annual allowable timber cut must, therefore, take into consideration the effects on the sustainable output of other goods and services and is obviously less than the volume which could be removed if only timber had to be considered. Defining allowable cut is a contentious issue and a spectrum of opinions has arisen, depending on viewpoints from a wide range of disciplines.

Forest management obstacles

Problems related to natural forest management aren’t confined to technical issues. Where other obstacles exist (for example, weak governance, lack of political support for the forestry sector, poor policy enforcement, insecure tenure, conflicting subsidies, weak institutional capacity, and corruption) these must be removed or circumvented before sustainable forest management can work. A realistic solution is to create a large production estate made up of plantations with accompanying natural managed forests.

According to reasonable assumptions, the maximum amount of natural tropical forest under sustainable management by 2050 is estimated to be 36 million ha, producing annnual output of 36 million m³. To make up the shortfall, a high-grade tropical hardwood plantation estate of 10 million ha (producing 10m³/ha/year) would be needed to satisfy demand on a sustainable basis. The required balance between sustained output arising from plantations and natural forest will become clearer in time and as deforestation levels change and fall off rapidly, which is expected to occur sometime between 2012-2025.

The arguments that low density plantation wood or alternative raw materials will diminish the need for tropical hardwood plantations and managed forests are shown to be inadequate given the likelihood that climate change mitigation measures and the need for energy conservation will put restraints on wood substitution. So, what is abundantly clear is the need for a balanced approach to forestry development.

Working paper

Current output from natural and plantation teak forests is discussed in my recent Working Paper “The future of teak and high grade tropical hardwoods” for the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the UN. The total commercial output from these sources and alternative high-grade tropical hardwood plantations is several million m³ and makes only a small contribution to the overall sustained hardwood demand. The big surprise is that some teak plantations are being exploited on a non-sustainable basis and are part of the tropical hardwood crisis rather than a bulwark against it.

It wouldn’t be reasonable or feasible to depend on teak alone as a plantation species. Nonetheless, teak would have a major role, particularly in the early stages of sustaining hardwood output and is the ideal species with which to introduce further variety and diversity into plantations. A proportion of the latter (an estimated one million ha) could be established mainly with teak, placing emphasis on wood quality as well as the environmental and social impacts of the estate.

The main purpose of the FAO Working Paper is to predict the nature of future teak plantations and highlight their potential contribution to the wider tropical hardwood sector. The forecast is that plantations of the future will be radically different and present growers with a flexible menu of silvicultural options, allowing unlimited planting patterns. This should make teak cultivation more lucrative as planting could be carried out with other commercial crops for early returns.

The end result could be the transformation of the teak plantation sector into a powerful and lucrative business that, at the same time, can help provide a solution to current tropical hardwood problems.

• Ray Keogh’s FAO Working Paper can be downloaded from www.fao.org/docrep/012/k6549e/k6549e00.pdf