Summary
¦ Anyone not already working towards CSH Level 4 could miss the deadline.
¦ UK housing stock is short to the tune of 200,000-250,000 per year.
¦ House buyers and tenants will have more influence when the economy recovers.
¦ Timber frame needs to be established in the psyche of the industry.

Housebuilding today faces twin challenges from two very different directions. On the one hand, the government’s imperative to achieve zero carbon homes across all sectors before the end of the decade; and on the other, the ability to respond to the economic recovery, when it arrives and to dedicate capacity to deliver new homes to consumers who want them within the same timescales.

The truth is the recession has forced the industry to downsize significantly and to cut its cloth, its banking facilities and its aspirations for a rapid return to profitable growth accordingly. The dilemma will be how best to invest impoverished resources so the budgetary case for R&D to meet the new regulations will have to be argued against a myriad of other good causes for access to scarce funds.

Given the timescales involved until the new regulations begin to impact, it’s clear that the winners will be those who are currently ahead of the game in innovation and developing new, sustainable products that cannot only be delivered to the mass market quickly, but which are both financially and aesthetically attractive to developers, housebuilders and consumers as well.

Meeting government targets

It is true that many of the early-stage development R&D programmes in progress, covering both materials and build systems, are aimed directly at meeting the forthcoming government targets. But with growing and significant demand for sustainable products already here, and only three years before the first immovable deadline is upon us, the challenges facing the industry in terms of infrastructure and product development are substantial and there will inevitably be winners and losers. Consequently, anyone not working diligently towards meeting at least Level 4 of the Code for Sustainable Homes commercially is in danger of having missed the boat.

At its peak, the housebuilding sector was producing around 240,000 homes per year, of which around 60,000 were built as social or affordable housing. The social and affordable sectors have fared better than others throughout the downturn, providing relatively consistent volume and a source of much-needed work for the industry. That is until recently and the introduction of the government’s austerity measures and subsequent cuts to public spending.

Pent-up demand

The private sector, of course, has been reduced to a shadow of its former self and these factors now conspire to provide a backdrop of pent-up demand, the true dimensions of which are yet to be realised. Estimates vary, but there is a view that the UK housing stock is short to the tune of between 200,000-250,000 homes per year, around 10% of this in Scotland alone. Therefore, it is clear that, not only is there demand, but when it arrives it needs to be met fast, to higher building standards, with improved control of costs and from a reduced pool of resources. Clearly the industry needs an absolute “can do” attitude.

The key areas that these homes of the future will address include minimising the energy requirement (and thus carbon footprint) of the home by using a range of sustainable technologies that all have one thing in common – no need for user intervention. Put simply, the majority of the environmental performance of these homes will be incorporated into the fabric of the buildings, an approach where timber frame is well placed to deliver.

From a consumer perspective, there is not, as yet, a huge understanding of what sustainability means for housing, but importantly, these homes will also be judged on the value for money they provide. Price premiums justified by the cost of embodied technology must deliver an enhanced user experience and a fast return on investment for the consumer (within their tenure in the building) or risk being eroded by market competition. This is hugely significant, as it will be the margin that the market is willing to support that will dictate the pace of growth or recovery for most operators in the sector.

My own view is that assuming a level playing field, as the next code supersedes its predecessor, it will be difficult to justify a premium over the previous generation in terms of market acceptance and we will have to engineer new products to ensure that the first version of the next code level costs no more on a like-for-like basis than the last version of the old code level.

Timber itself is the only truly sustainable building material we have, being one of the lowest embodied carbon raw materials around, providing the structural kits for high quality homes. Timber frame will meet the government regulations with ease and, indeed, is already doing so with Code Level 4 being met by Stewart Milne Timber Systems’ Sigma II product, which is already in production and being delivered commercially to the market.

As well as the feel-good factor of using a natural and sustainable material, timber as a building material is proven – it works, has been around for hundreds of years, is in common use and is low maintenance. In addition to its environmental credentials, it’s commercially economical, supports improved health and safety, offers design flexibility, provides high quality buildings as a result of being manufactured in a controlled factory environment and benefits from rapid build speed.

The argument for choosing timber is becoming increasingly apparent but, despite the growing popularity of timber frame as a build solution, there remains a need to move it up the agenda and establish it in the psyche of the industry. With the growing need to shorten the cash-to-cash cycle – and speed of build being a key enabler of this – the industry must be receptive to change.

Consumer influence

And let us not forget the consumer. With recovery forecast in the medium term, house buyers and tenants will have more influence than ever before, and choice, shorter lead times and fast delivery are all key motivators. Again, timber frame comes into its own in providing all of these at the same time as meeting the challenges of private sector sales models based on concluding off-plan, leaving around only 12 weeks to deliver a new-build product. Closed panel, “fabric first” build systems are already well on the way to meeting the much-vaunted need for energy efficiencies, and the ability to tailor production to market demand provides cost-effective flexibility.

So for any architects sharpening their pencils to design a modern housing development, any developers looking for assured solutions for contented customers, and any consumers looking for energy-efficient homes that are easy to change and can be extended painlessly, timber frame really does fit the bill.